TRAVERSING THE TOURISM HI-WAY

DAILY our national newspapers are coming up with screaming headlines on the Scarborough Shoal standoff. It is a hot topic as if the end of the world will come in a confrontation between China and the Philippines exploding into a full blown war? Don’t ever think of war because we cannot afford it nor China will go for it inviting sanctions from the US and ruin their exports to the west.
There is no war to happen and the Philippines and China are doing the best diplomatic efforts to resolve the issues without a need for arbitration in the international court of justice regarding the laws of the seas. China is just saving face to cover up for their fisherman’s pouching activities. They will eventually withdraw when the monsoon season comes because they cannot muster enough supply for their ships 1,200 miles away and 220 miles near the Philippines. Posturing to test our resolve to depend our territory, it’s all for entertainment and face saving.
China needs the Philippines for comfort to dump their Peking ducks, DVD Players, Ma-ling and Noodle products more than what we need them. They need America for business, copy their technology and steal their military secrets faster than what America can protect them. China needs the South China Sea open as safe route for their oil coming from Iran. China knows that the Scarborough Shoals belongs to the Philippines. They are afraid to destabilize the maritime peace.
War rumor mongering only distract us from the more important economic and political issues confronting the Philippines. Our leaders should instead focus on their mandate to fast tract the peace process with the MILF and the economy. Our eyes and ears should instead be open to what the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Board of Governors Conference now going on in Manila will forecast about the economy in Asia where the Philippines plays an important demographic roles.
The Chinese economy is export driven. They created so much of the world’s products more than what they can use and dispose at a bargain price. The US and the west are huge buyers of undervalued and cheap consumer household products. From appliances, electronics, clothing’s and processed foods, the supermarkets shelves’ in America and Canada are overloaded with made in China. The trade surplus is not surprising because Asians are the number one immigrants to the US and Canada than any other countries in the western hemisphere or Latin America. Asians and even Filipino-Americans buy a lot of Chinese products traded to America. Without the west, the Chinese economy will go back to the 2nd world war level. Any trade depression will find their products rotting in many manufacturing zones in China if the west stops buying.
Before a single Filipino dies of hunger, millions of Chinese will die of starvation if their industries stops grinding for lack of fuel to process their food products and other exports. Of course, the US knows that, a reason their Pentagon wanted to establish another naval base closer to the South China Sea. In fact a brand new super aircraft carrier will soon be commissioned for Pacific tour of duties, the nuclear powered USS Ronald Reagan and one more is in the naval dockyard in the US awaiting completion reserved for a living former President. The US supply naval base in Diego Garcia somewhere in the Indian Ocean is too small and too far to handle a naval blockade in the oil route. US can not involve their forces stationed in Okinawa and Korea as it would violate their agreement with their host countries.
The Chinese are not stupid to cause a tip in the balance of peace in the South China Sea. Any conflagration with the Philippines which has a gray defense mutual treaty with America will drag the US 7th Fleet Forces out and choke China’s supply route of oil from Iran. That is what America wanted to happen, use the Philippines as a springboard to patrol the South China Sea and cut China without going into a confrontational war. It is hitting two birds in one shot; any chain reaction will diminish the capability of Iran to exchange their oil with Chinese armaments. No shot will be fired for the Philippines.
Let us not fan the situation in the Scarborough Shoal, for all we know, small countries are used as pawns for the war of the major powers. Modern warfare are not designed to conquer nations and annihilate their population but to wrist the economies and imposed dominion in trading through various sanctions. Whoever is victorious in the arm twisting has the upper hand in trade and collect the balance of payment.


Ped T. Quiamjot is one of the brilliant columnists of a local newspaper in Cagayan de Oro City and currently the General Manager of Pryce Plaza Hotel Cagayan de Oro. His column talks on various issues and concerns affecting the business sector and tourism industry.